PETALING JAYA: RHB Analysis is anticipating Malaysia’s automotive sector to ship one other record-breaking yr if the month-to-month complete trade quantity (TIV) picks up within the subsequent 4 months.
In a notice at this time, it stated robust deliveries are anticipated within the second half of 2023 (H2 2023), supported primarily by marques with giant excellent backlogs like Perodua and Toyota – primarily fuelled by the launches of Perodua Axia and Toyota Vios.
“August’s TIV of 72,000 introduced year-to-date (YTD) TIV to 502,000 models.
“The month noticed a robust month-on-month (m-o-m) improve, primarily from Japanese carmakers equivalent to Honda and Toyota, which rose by 30% and 23% respectively, pushed by order backlogs,” it stated.
The analysis home stated its 2023 TIV estimate of 725,000 models parallels the Malaysian Automotive Affiliation’s (MAA) 2023 forecast.
As for 2024, RHB Analysis stated subsequent yr’s TIV might soften year-on-year (y-o-y) on lack of catalysts to assist excessive orders and deliveries, particularly if this yr’s TIV hits a peak.
“We’re additionally anticipating the backlog of main marques to steadily ease all through the fourth quarter of 2023 (This autumn 2023).
“Whereas stronger electrical automobile (EV) adoption could also be an upside threat to 2024’s TIV, we don’t assume this will probably be vital sufficient to maneuver the needle,” it stated.
Within the meantime, MIDF Analysis stated there’s room for this yr’s TIV to outperform projections, whereas near-term income visibility is stable given the prevailing order backlog.
“Nonetheless, the current spherical of analyst briefings has steered that backlog order development has began to flatten with preliminary indicators of receding in comparison with March-June ranges following a pickup in manufacturing to deal with the lengthy ready listing beforehand.
“Whereas we imagine TIV momentum is near peaking after record-breaking TIV (numbers) in 2022 with one other potential new file this yr, we don’t count on a drastic fall at this juncture,” MIDF Analysis stated.
It added that the demand could possibly be supported by enhancements within the labour market, revenue situations and easing inflation.
Whereas a robust US greenback is a margin threat, it famous that non-national auto gamers have been elevating costs since early this yr.
Due to this fact, the analysis home is protecting a impartial name on the automotive sector.